$TSLA Stock Update for 2019-11-11

Market return: 39% Month, 47% Quarter, 49% Half year, -2% Year

EPClub return: 740%

Recommend: 2.9

PEG: n/a

EPS next 5Y: 841%

Summary:

  • Very strong lately, nearing its all-time high
  • Hold

Notes:

  • The biggest news coming out of Q3 earnings, from my perspective, is the ahead of schedule Shanghai Gigafactory. Ahead of schedule is something you rarely hear from Tesla, who has had a history of overpromising and under-delivering. 
  • Musk promised to have 360,000-400,000 vehicles delivered by the end of fiscal 2019. This was something quickly shrugged off by investors, as this visionary’s grandiose expectations are often unattainable.
  • Tesla has been able to deliver over 95,000 cars in Q2 and 97,000 in Q3, which were both record delivery figures for the company. If the company can deliver 105,000 vehicles in Q4, then it will have hit Musk’s seeming unattainable guidance.
  • In a letter to shareholders, Elon said that this factory was 65% cheaper than any Model 3 factory built in the United States.
  • The cost to the Chinese consumer will fall due to expect cost reductions and also allow the firm to bypass the tariffs associated with the US-China trade conflict.
  • The Gigafactory is currently in trial production and plans to have the plant fully operational this quarter. In phase 1, Tesla expects to be producing 250,000 cars for China annually and to reach its capacity of 500,000 units in the years moving forward.
  • The firm also said it would announce the location of its highly anticipated European factory by the end of the year

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